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KRIGEN I LIBANON? EN ANALYSE FRA NY SUN. september 5, 2006

Posted by neros in Islam, Uncategorized.
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Lebanon’s Fuse.

http://www.nysun.com/article/39089?page_no=1

By NIBRAS KAZIMI
September 5, 2006

The latest flare-up in Lebanon was not an isolated incident, but rather the beginning of a global war. Powerful historical forces are astir rendering diplomatic quick-fixes to no avail. Dormant hatreds are being awakened, and the Middle East is seized with the hallucinations of vengeful fever. It will turn ugly, bearing out the worst in every civilization, including the Western one.I was blissfully certain that this war would take at least another two years to kick-off, but I was very wrong. My mistake derived from believing that the jihadists were setting the time-table, but I was too fixated on the Sunni jihadists to take notice of the Shia ones and their state-sponsors.

Many have conjured up explanations for why Hezbollah did what it did, and why Israel responded as it did. The result today is a far more diminished state in Lebanon, while the supremacy of Hezbollah’s rhetoric and tactics is paramount and held in high esteem.

Some Sunnis in Lebanon may be proud of what Hezbollah “achieved,” but soon they will wake up to a new political reality: the balance of power has shifted in the favor of Lebanon’s Shias.The Sunnis will ask themselves that persistent Lebanese question, “Who will protect me if a civil war breaks out again?” Certainly it won’t be the young and bumbling Sa’ad Hariri. They will need a counterforce as ferocious as Hezbollah. The only option that fits this bill is the jihadists.

There is a road that loops around the province of Akkar towards Lebanon’s northernmost geographic lump. It passes many disturbing realities in Lebanon: Greek Orthodox villages depopulated through low birthrates and immigration, isolated Maronite towns buffered by high-altitude forests of pine and cedar, and the stark poverty of the majority of Lebanon’s Sunnis. Akkar is considered the backwater to a backwater, but it is a net population exporter as poverty breeds numbers, yielding tens of thousands of young Sunnis. These are textbook conditions for multiplying the jihadist rank and file, especially since their ideas have been germinating in this environment through the numerous charities providing services that the Lebanese government, and the largesse of families like the super-wealthy Hariris, cannot deliver.

Lebanon itself is not much of a prize for the jihadists, but it has immense strategic value as a base of operations against Syria and Israel. From the highlands of Akkar one can peer over the plains of Homs and Hama in Syria, former bastions of jihadism that are eager to settle a score with the Ba’athists and Alawites in charge. From another Sunni enclave to the southeast of the country, the shallow canyons give access to the suburbs of Damascus, and bring Israeli settlements within range of projectiles. This is ideal real estate for those who hope to relocate the epicenter of jihad to Syria, and to open a front against Israel, which seems to confer instant super-hero status upon those who do such as Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah.